Over the next few years two factors will have a major influence on the future of the GAA – changing demographics in Ireland and accelerated globalisation in sport and the media.

‘Dis Great Assosheeeayshun of Ours’ has always been particularly good at reading the signs of change and adapting itself before things turn into a crisis. The debates and changes on the former Rules 26 and 21 are good examples of this healthy process. However, these latest challenges are greater than any previously seen. Responding to them in a way that will retain and even enhance the GAA’s place at the centre of Irish life will require clear thinking, careful planning and courageous leadership.

Demographic changes work in two principal ways. The overall economic growth of the so-called Celtic Tiger has masked an enormous transfer of population and economic power to Dublin and Leinster, at the expense of the North West and South East and, to a lesser extent, the West. Some economic writers have identified a symbiotic link between economic development and sporting success. In a way, this is understandable. More money floating around means more leisure time for sport and more cash available to invest in training and facilities. Could it be that Clare’s senior hurling breakthrough of 1995 owed more to the activities of Shannon Development in the region in the previous thirty years, than to the ending of Biddy Early’s Curse or the arrival on the scene of Ger Loughnane? If this is so, may we expect to see a further re-focussing of county power away from the traditional parishes and counties over the next decade?

The other change is subtler and therefore its implications may initially be less noticeable in GAA terms. According to the most recent census of population, there are now one hundred and sixty different nationalities in Ireland. These people represent a huge potential resource and a great opportunity for the GAA. But what are we doing to reach out to them and involve them? True, we sometimes see black kids at Cumann na mBunscol photo calls in Croke Park or even parading proudly at the head of their teams in Féile. But we need to go much further than these haphazard approaches. The GAA needs to develop targeted and differentiated programmes of outreach to the major ethnic communities across the country. Under-age coaches and development officers should be given special training and resources in this vital area. They need to link up with the various voluntary and official agencies that deal with immigrants and learn what are the best approaches. We should also develop GAA coaches and leaders from within the ethnic communities themselves. This is not rocket science. Even the booths selling the ‘Evening Herald’ on O’Connell Street in Dublin and some of the shops around Croke Park have found it makes good business sensedisplay notices in Serbo-Croat. The owners of these premises have recognised a fundamental truth. Most of these overseas people are not in transit. They are here to stay.

Already, in the greater Dublin area, there are several junior soccer teams exclusively composed of immigrants. They bring a marvellous infusion of skill, youth and vitality to sport here. It would be crazy for the GAA to forfeit these people to soccer or rugby, simply through inertia or lack of imagination. Purists might argue that it is too late for them to take up the skills of hurling, but we are talking about children – who have the time to learn - as well as adults. For either generation, however, Gaelic football is certainly open to them. A friend of mine was recently at a football match in Dublin and saw a black player score a marvellous point from an overhead kick!

This would also be a great opportunity for the GAA to help in the integration of immigrant people into Irish society. They should be involved root and branch in the Association and not hived off into some kind of ‘ghetto’ teams, which appears to be the case in junior soccer. The response to this challenge needs a task force, similar to the recent one on Alcohol and Substance Abuse, to look at it urgently and report back with some clear recommendations and guidelines for action. Either way, it is critically important to ensure that, in ten years time, Gaelic games will not have become the sole preserve of an ageing, white indigenous population.

The other important dynamic impacting on the GAA is the globalisation of sport. In simple terms, ‘globalisation’ translates as ‘money’. Sport, and sports related consumer marketing is now one of the major elements of economic globalisation. The estimated cumulative television audience for soccer’s Euro 2004 was ten billion people. Out of this, UEFA generated a ‘kitty’ of well over €800 million to spend on the development of soccer around the world, with a particular emphasis on African, Caribbean and Asian countries.

Here at home, it has been estimated that sports business is worth around €2 billion annually in consumer spending, or about 2% of total economic activity. Obviously, all those match tickets, replica jerseys, ‘hang samwidges’ and flasks of tea on the side of the road all add. Sponsorship of sport in Ireland is heading for the €100 million mark and we have recently seen the emergence of lawyers specialising in what is called ‘Sports Law’, God bless us and save us!

Wherever you have lawyers, you have talk of rights. Nowhere is this term more used than in the area of sports programming. Big audience sports programmes are the ideal vehicles for standardised, homogenised advertising to reach the greatest number of potential consumers at least cost. That factor, in turn, gives rise to bidding wars between major media organisations for the rights to broadcast major sporting events.

Already, the outlines are falling into place for an intriguing auction for the next round of GAA rights in a few years time. The established channels are facing increased competition from Setanta Sports, now launched as Ireland’s first all-sports channel. Setanta will be available to 340,000 ntl customers as well as to Sky Ireland viewers. Cumulatively, they provide a potential audience base to rival RTÉ and dwarf TV3 or TG4. With former RTÉ Head of Sport, Niall Cogley, in place, it is inevitable that Setanta will make a strong bid for domestic broadcasting rights to GAA games, since they already own the overseas rights.

For their part, the GAA have made it no secret that they would welcome more competition for the rights. This is based on the old First Year Economics theory that the greater the demand for something, the higher the price. To further maximise revenue, the GAA may seek to separate League, provincial, All Ireland, football and hurling into separate packages, with the overall bids being greater than a single package. Among some fans there may be some concern about games being available on a satellite-only platform. However, it would be relatively easy for Setanta to fix that by linking up with TG4. In that way, a free terrestrial signal would still available, but the Irish language commentary would reduce the potential to cannibalise the cable audience. How many fans might opt to watch the TG4 pictures and accompany them with a radio commentary from Mícheál Ó Muircheartaigh on RTÉ radio – himself a former Chairman of Foras na Gaeilge ?!

The above article was first published in 'High Ball' magazine and is reproduced here by kind permission of the Editor, Damian Dowds