Limerick went into last Sunday's All-Ireland Final with the historical odds stacked against them.

Of the previous fifty finals, 44 were contested by at least one of the "big three" hurling counties (Kilkenny, Cork and Tipperary). Of these, 15 were contested by two of the big three. This means that the remaining 29 finals involved a clash between one of the big three and another county. Of these, 21 were won by the county from the big three. Only six finals were played between two counties from outside the big three. The fact that 14 of the 50 finals were won by "lesser" counties (and that two other counties - Dublin and Antrim - actually contested finals in this period without winning them) provides the ray of hope which keeps these counties going.

However, the obvious lesson is that the best way to stop a big three county from winning the All-Ireland is to stop them getting to the final.

There is a theory in economics called the theory of cumulative causation. This refers to the way in which a region, once it pulls ahead of other regions, is able to build on its initial advantage to create further advantages and thereby pull further ahead of the lagging regions. A simpler version of the same theory is that success breeds success.

Once Cork, Tipperary and Kilkenny pulled ahead of the pack, a number of effects were set in motion. Young kids in these counties sought to emulate their heroes, creating an assembly line of new talent. These kids, in turn, were nurtured by mentors who knew what it was all about and whose store of wisdom grew as success followed success. It became a badge of honour for the most recent crop of players not to let the county down and be seen as inferior to the great men who had gone before.

The psychological advantage of being a big-three county is immense. These men expect to win, and usually do against the lesser lights. Perhaps above all, teams from these counties know HOW to win. Even when in trouble, they tend to stay calm and stick to the basics.

The textbook example of this is the 1993 Leinster final. Wexford are a point up late in injury time. Billy Byrne gets the ball about forty yards out from the Kilkenny goal but facing towards the sideline. If he hits the ball out over the Cusack Stand, Wexford will win that match. Instead he tries to shoot for a point over his shoulder. His shot is blocked down and Kilkenny work the ball up the field in a series of passes for Eamon Morrissey to tap over the equaliser. The Cats bury the Yellowbellies in the replay.

This was the same Wexford team that, earlier in the year, lost the league final to Cork in a second replay, having spurned gilt-edged chances to win all three games. It's all about confidence and knowing how to win.

Which brings us back to Limerick last Sunday. In the semi-final, they were up against Waterford, another also-ran county. An early purple patch saw them go ten points ahead. This had directly contrasting effects on both teams. Waterford, desperate to win after four previous semi-final defeats, panicked. They started mishitting balls, shooting from impossible positions and booming high balls into the Limerick goal area. Limerick gained in confidence, and even though they were losing the territorial battle in the face of Waterford's increasingly frantic efforts to save the game, they made much better use of the ball they did get hold of, playing into space and prodding for the cracks which a jittery defence generously yielded up.

In the final against Kilkenny's big cats, Limerick found themselves in precisely the same situation as Waterford were against them, and reacted in exactly the same manner, except even more so. Our analysis of the semi-final showed that Waterford sent 17 high balls into the Limerick goal area during the course of the game and got zero return in terms of resulting scores. Last Sunday, Limerick did this no less than 23 times, and got just one score from them - Ollie Moran's goal. They managed to win another three of these balls but gained nothing from them; four of the balls hopped wide; three went straight to the Kilkenny goalkeeper and the Kilkenny defence cleared the remaining 12 balls.

Kilkenny, by contrast, played the kind of hurling that Limerick produced in the semi-final: a mixture of low and measured high balls down the wings and into the corners, crossfield balls and, for a bit of variety, some good low balls into the goal area. In the circumstances, it was perhaps ironic that Kilkenny's killer second goal came from a rare high ball into the Limerick goalmouth - just as Limerick scored three goals from the only balls of similar ilk which they projected into the Waterford large square in the semi-final.

There has been some controversy surrounding Ger Loughnane's remarks about the nature of the way Kilkenny play. In an attempt at clarification, Loughnane seems to have said that he was not suggesting that they were particularly dirty, but that they play a physical game which is constantly on the edge of legitimacy, and that they get away with this most of the time. Analysis of the match recording tends to bear this out (although it should be noted in passing that the three nastiest incidents in the game - Eddie Brennan's elbow into Stephen Lucey's face, Richie Power's raised shoulder into Seamus Hickey's chest and Cha Fitzpatrick's late tackle with his hurley into Damien Reale's throat - were all essayed by Kilkenny men).

There has been much comment on Diarmuid Kirwan's handling of the game, with the common view being that he was particularly lenient on Limerick indiscretions, possibly in an attempt to make a game of it. However, as one poster on this site has observed, the fact that Limerick got 18 frees and Kilkenny only seven doesn't necessarily mean that that the referee was biased - it could be that Kilkenny were actually doing more fouling.

There is no doubt that Kilkenny are experts at the cynical professional foul. They simply will not allow a player break into open space if they can help it, especially in the vicinity of their own goal. And if that's what it takes to win matches, fair enough.

What is particularly revealing from an analysis of the recording of last Sunday's game is the number of times Kilkenny got away with what appeared to this observer to be illegal acts. An Moltóir did a count of incidents on both sides which, from a television viewing (supported, in many cases, from personal observation from being at the game itself) appeared to be fouls, and found that Kilkenny should have been penalised on 16 occasions but weren't. The count for Limerick was just six.

Kilkenny are particularly adept at a particular device for preventing opponents from catching high balls which is clearly illegal but for which they are never punished. This is to place the hand holding the hurley over the shoulder of the opponent from behind and then push down or drag back the opponent before the ball arrives. Just look at Tommy Walsh catching the ball against Seanie O'Connor in the third minute, or Aidan Fogarty on Damien Reale in the 7th minute, JJ Delaney on Brian Begley in the 22nd, and Eoin Larkin on Peter Lawlor in the 29th and 53rd minutes.

The failure to penalise Kilkenny indiscretions proved costly for Limerick. In the second minute, Willie Dwyer tripped Damien Reale without penalty and Kilkenny got a pointed free immediately afterwards. The aforementioned illegal catch by Tommy Walsh led directly to a point by Eoin Larkin. In the 17th minute, Henry Sheflin shouldered Seamus Hickey in the back out over the sideline and Kilkenny got a point from the resulting sideline puck. This was an important score as up to then, Limerick had got the previous three scores and Kilkenny hadn't scored for eight minutes. Eoin Larkin scored a point in the 29th minute after fouling Peter Lawlor to catch the ball (as mentioned above). In the 3