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Topic: Serfdom for Ireland?
Bright Vision (565 Posts)	Posted: 08-May-2011 00:23	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
Bright Vision (565 Posts)	Do we have the confidence and the leadership to make the necessary decisions to save this country having to export it`s young for the foreseeable future? Extract from Morgan Kellys article in the Irish Times today Suppose that we did not want to follow our current path towards an ECB-directed bankruptcy and spiralling national ruin, is there anything we could do? While Prof Honohan sportingly threw away our best cards last September, there still is a way out that, while not painless, is considerably less painful than what Europe has in mind for us. National survival requires that Ireland walk away from the bailout. This in turn requires the Government to do two things: disengage from the banks, and bring its budget into balance immediately. First the banks. While the ECB does not want to rescue the Irish banks, it cannot let them collapse either and start a wave of panic that sweeps across Europe. So, every time one of you expresses your approval of the Irish banks by moving your savings to a foreign-owned bank, the Irish bank goes and replaces your money with emergency borrowing from the ECB or the Irish Central Bank. Their current borrowings are €160 billion. The original bailout plan was that the loan portfolios of Irish banks would be sold off to repay these borrowings. However, foreign banks know that many of these loans, mortgages especially, will eventually default, and were not interested. As a result, the ECB finds itself with the Irish banks wedged uncomfortably far up its fundament, and no way of dislodging them. This allows Ireland to walk away from the banking system by returning the Nama assets to the banks, and withdrawing its promissory notes in the banks. The ECB can then learn the basic economic truth that if you lend €160 billion to insolvent banks backed by an insolvent state, you are no longer a creditor: you are the owner. At some stage the ECB can take out an eraser and, where “Emergency Loan” is written in the accounts of Irish banks, write “Capital” instead. When it chooses to do so is its problem, not ours. At a stroke, the Irish Government can halve its debt to a survivable €110 billion. The ECB can do nothing to the Irish banks in retaliation without triggering a catastrophic panic in Spain and across the rest of Europe. The only way Europe can respond is by cutting off funding to the Irish Government. So the second strand of national survival is to bring the Government budget immediately into balance. The reason for governments to run deficits in recessions is to smooth out temporary dips in economic activity. However, our current slump is not temporary: Ireland bet everything that house prices would rise forever, and lost. To borrow so that senior civil servants like me can continue to enjoy salaries twice as much as our European counterparts makes no sense, macroeconomic or otherwise. Cutting Government borrowing to zero immediately is not painless but it is the only way of disentangling ourselves from the loan sharks who are intent on making an example of us. In contrast, the new Government’s current policy of lying on the ground with a begging bowl and hoping that someone takes pity on us does not make for a particularly strong negotiating position. By bringing our budget immediately into balance, we focus attention on the fact that Ireland’s problems stem almost entirely from the activities of six privately owned banks, while freeing ourselves to walk away from these poisonous institutions. Just as importantly, it sends a signal to the rest of the world that Ireland – which 20 years ago showed how a small country could drag itself out of poverty through the energy and hard work of its inhabitants, but has since fallen among thieves and their political fixers – is back and means business. Of course, we all know that this will never happen. Irish politicians are too used to being rewarded by Brussels to start fighting against it, even if it is a matter of national survival. It is easier to be led along blindfold until the noose is slipped around our necks and we are kicked through the trapdoor into bankruptcy. The destruction wrought by the bankruptcy will not just be economic but political. Just as the Lenihan bailout destroyed Fianna Fáil, so the Noonan bankruptcy will destroy Fine Gael and Labour, leaving them as reviled and mistrusted as their predecessors. And that will leave Ireland in the interesting situation where the economic crisis has chewed up and spat out all of the State’s constitutional parties. The last election was reassuringly dull and predictable but the next, after the trauma and chaos of the bankruptcy, will be anything but.
Bright Vision (565 Posts)	Posted: 08-May-2011 21:28	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
Bright Vision (565 Posts)	Lead story on the 9 o`clock news The man has a plan but is the medicine too bitter
JohnMcCain (702 Posts)	Posted: 08-May-2011 21:44	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
JohnMcCain (702 Posts)	Originally posted by Bright Vision: Lead story on the 9 o`clock news The man has a plan but is the medicine too bitter Kelly has no plan. It is not possible to cut 19 billion euro in one budget. That would be four times the severity of Lenihans last budget. It would finish off the country. It is nonsensical. If we walk away now from the bailout what will fund social welfare, health and education? Kelly provides no answer to this either. Neither did he explain HOW the budget deficit could be reduced to zero immediately, In about two years the EU will have to agree to a major restructuring of Irish debt when the current bailout money runs out. That is the way forward not a unilateral approach. Greece will default first. This message has been edited - 08-may-2011 @ 21:47
dubliner 2 (10,823 Posts)	Posted: 08-May-2011 22:53	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
dubliner 2 (10,823 Posts)	It seems to me that Kelly was right in what he said pre bust but no one listened. His current plan is crazy. Soon enough we`ll be done with three and five year plans and we will be accorded a much longer time frame to pay off our debts. That`s all that will save the euro and that`s what`s in our favour. If not we should default on bank debt.
Bright Vision (565 Posts)	Posted: 08-May-2011 23:31	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
Bright Vision (565 Posts)	Originally posted by JohnMcCain: Kelly has no plan. It is not possible to cut 19 billion euro in one budget. That would be four times the severity of Lenihans last budget. It would finish off the country. It is nonsensical. If we walk away now from the bailout what will fund social welfare, health and education? Kelly provides no answer to this either. Neither did he explain HOW the budget deficit could be reduced to zero immediately, In about two years the EU will have to agree to a major restructuring of Irish debt when the current bailout money runs out. That is the way forward not a unilateral approach. Greece will default first. Last years deficit was 18.5bn and the last budget was to close it by 6bn leaving another 12.5bn to go. It`s time to be selfish, to put the interests of ireland first or the IMF hangman will have his day with the noose fashioned by bertie
Bright Vision (565 Posts)	Posted: 08-May-2011 23:40	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
Bright Vision (565 Posts)	Originally posted by dubliner 2: It seems to me that Kelly was right in what he said pre bust but no one listened. His current plan is crazy. Soon enough we`ll be done with three and five year plans and we will be accorded a much longer time frame to pay off our debts. That`s all that will save the euro and that`s what`s in our favour. If not we should default on bank debt. Pay off our debt! A quarter of a trillion at 6/7/8%, that`s a 15 to 20 bn interest bill every year. It does not matter how long we are given to pay off our debt, the interest bill alone will sink us and ensure that Irish sovereignty resides in Brussels, london and new York.
Bright Vision (565 Posts)	Posted: 07-May-2012 23:47	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
Bright Vision (565 Posts)	Vote no to serfdom, balance the budget immediately and stop paying back German institutions for their bad investments in Irish banks Either make the bold move or condemn a generation of irish to unemployment or emigration
let it long (1,214 Posts)	Posted: 08-May-2012 00:00	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
let it long (1,214 Posts)	While I agree we should balance the budget immediately I think he's talking nonsence in this article when it comes to abandoning the banks. The time to do this was 4 yrs ago when we still had a pension reserve etc and the people of the country had enough reserves to get through a tough year or two. What he advocates now is just suicide. By all means vote no to the treaty but to renege on the banks at this stage would see us completely down the swanny along with any multinationals who have even just a couple of million in Irish banks. They'd bail in a heartbeat
loughcurraman (1,456 Posts)	Posted: 08-May-2012 02:48	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
loughcurraman (1,456 Posts)	I dont think digging up articles from a year ago is of any relevance whatsoever to the present situation. It adds absolutely nothing to the debate.
Bressie (388 Posts)	Posted: 08-May-2012 11:34	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
Bressie (388 Posts)	Slashing 30% off public sector pay and reducing the headcount by another 30% would help us balance the books.
zozimus (367 Posts)	Posted: 08-May-2012 12:10	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
zozimus (367 Posts)	Originally posted by Bressie: Slashing 30% off public sector pay and reducing the headcount by another 30% would help us balance the books. And stimulate growth?
Bressie (388 Posts)	Posted: 08-May-2012 12:13	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
Bressie (388 Posts)	Originally posted by zozimus: And stimulate growth? Pruning dead wood is good for growth!
Yojimbo (13,949 Posts)	Posted: 08-May-2012 16:31	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
Yojimbo (13,949 Posts)	"While Prof Honohan sportingly threw away our best cards last September" Is that whats euphemistically referred to as 'a knee in the groin', and I wonder do Kelly and Honohan have 'previous', other than what might be euphemistically described as 'policy differences'?
Hidalgo (2,114 Posts)	Posted: 08-May-2012 17:34	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
Hidalgo (2,114 Posts)	Originally posted by Bright Vision: Pay off our debt! A quarter of a trillion at 6/7/8%, that`s a 15 to 20 bn interest bill every year. It does not matter how long we are given to pay off our debt, the interest bill alone will sink us and ensure that Irish sovereignty resides in Brussels, london and new York. This whole 'losing our sovereignty' malarky is nothing more than that, malarky. One could argue that we gave away our sovereignty when we joined the EEC. Who has control over agriculture, fisheries, environmental issues etc. Why is Phil Hogan looking for a few bob to fix the septic tanks, because we get fined by the EU if we don't comply. People that imagine we had our sovereignty up till the bail-out have had the heads in the sand for a while. Besides, in a globlised world, is sovereignty and nationalism the be all and end all. Should quality of life, family, health, education etc not be more important???
FTJC (1,138 Posts)	Posted: 08-May-2012 21:20	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
FTJC (1,138 Posts)	Originally posted by Hidalgo: Should quality of life, family, health, education etc not be more important??? Absolutely, as long as the person receiving such state benfits has made, or is making, a valuable contribution to society. Additionally, we waste BILLIONS of taxpayers money every year on stuff that achieves none of the above
Yojimbo (13,949 Posts)	Posted: 08-May-2012 23:31	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
Yojimbo (13,949 Posts)	Originally posted by Hidalgo: This whole 'losing our sovereignty' malarky is nothing more than that, malarky.One could argue that we gave away our sovereignty when we joined the EEC. Who has control over agriculture, fisheries, environmental issues etc. Why is Phil Hogan looking for a few bob to fix the septic tanks, because we get fined by the EU if we don't comply.People that imagine we had our sovereignty up till the bail-out have had the heads in the sand for a while.Besides, in a globlised world, is sovereignty and nationalism the be all and end all.Should quality of life, family, health, education etc not be more important??? Couldn't agree more, Hidalgo. All the claptrap opposition politicians were spouting about Dev and Collins, both, turning in their graves when the troika came in and imposed a set of rules on us was just that, 'claptrap'. We don't exist in a vacuum. And however much the worst crimes of the Celtic Tiger were created by Irish people, it was Global circumstances, and financiers, that facilitated it
Coddler (523 Posts)	Posted: 09-May-2012 11:40	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
Coddler (523 Posts)	Originally posted by Hidalgo: Besides, in a globlised world, is sovereignty and nationalism the be all and end all.Should quality of life, family, health, education etc not be more important??? Retaining our sovereignty is important precisely because of those reasons. Do you honestly believe that the objective of the ECB is to protect the quality of life of Irish families?
Bright Vision (565 Posts)	Posted: 14-May-2012 18:09	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
Bright Vision (565 Posts)	Originally posted by loughcurraman: I dont think digging up articles from a year ago is of any relevance whatsoever to the present situation. It adds absolutely nothing to the debate. It’s of every relevance to the present situation. All that has happened is that we are deeper in debt and we are showing no signs of recovery. The fundamentals have not changed.
Bright Vision (565 Posts)	Posted: 14-May-2012 18:18	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
Bright Vision (565 Posts)	Originally posted by Hidalgo: This whole 'losing our sovereignty' malarky is nothing more than that, malarky.One could argue that we gave away our sovereignty when we joined the EEC. Who has control over agriculture, fisheries, environmental issues etc. Why is Phil Hogan looking for a few bob to fix the septic tanks, because we get fined by the EU if we don't comply.People that imagine we had our sovereignty up till the bail-out have had the heads in the sand for a while.Besides, in a globlised world, is sovereignty and nationalism the be all and end all.Should quality of life, family, health, education etc not be more important??? Sovereignty is about ensuring that the best interests of the people who live on this island are looked after. The laissez faire attitude of London in the 19th century should be lesson enough. The importance of sovereignty to a nation does not disappear in a globalised world. Sovereignty is about ensuring quality of life for the citizens of this country.
Bressie (388 Posts)	Posted: 15-May-2012 10:40	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
Bressie (388 Posts)	In Greece you don't get any dole if you've never worked. We should implement that here straight away.

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