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Topic: Bank of Ireland Shares
fireball (93 Posts)	Posted: 17-Oct-2008 10:52	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
fireball (93 Posts)	Shares slip to 1.70..........are they worth a gamble yet? talk of a merger with aib on the cards, dont know a whole lot about all this so any advise lads or ladies?
bear (990 Posts)	Posted: 17-Oct-2008 11:14	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
bear (990 Posts)	Originally posted by fireball: Shares slip to 1.70..........are they worth a gamble yet? talk of a merger with aib on the cards, dont know a whole lot about all this so any advise lads or ladies? Wouldn`t go near them with a barge pole!!!
Rebel CNC (4,232 Posts)	Posted: 17-Oct-2008 11:46	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
Rebel CNC (4,232 Posts)	Be careful Fireball - the full extent of BOI`s exposure not yet reflected in that price. Also, government will have to take capital in the bank and that will further dilute existing shares and hence their value. If there is to be merger or takeover, it will be led by further crisis so firesale price I would think. I would buy non-financial shares in USA or Europe. They might still take a wobble or two in next five or six months but great value there over five or six years. Irish market too exposed to construction - will be in doldrums for much longer period.
redlead (4,662 Posts)	Posted: 17-Oct-2008 12:16	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
redlead (4,662 Posts)	Originally posted by fireball: Shares slip to 1.70..........are they worth a gamble yet? talk of a merger with aib on the cards, dont know a whole lot about all this so any advise lads or ladies? There is no way the competition authority would allow a merger! I bought them at 859 thinking i was getting a bargain...stay well clear at the moment, they are doing nothing but going down
ballygowan (1,987 Posts)	Posted: 17-Oct-2008 12:23	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
ballygowan (1,987 Posts)	Originally posted by redlead: [QUOTE]Originally posted by fireball: There is no way the competition authority would allow a merger! The Competition Authority would allow a merger if it prevented BOI from going to the wall
LimerickNomad (Power User)	Posted: 17-Oct-2008 12:26	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
LimerickNomad (Power User)	Originally posted by redlead: There is no way the competition authority would allow a merger! I bought them at 859 thinking i was getting a bargain...stay well clear at the moment, they are doing nothing but going down The Competition Authority is for the "small people" - just like the Financial Regulator. When the sh-it does hit the fan, no one will be able to be protected from the effects, except the big-wigs themselves who will walk away laughing knowing that they have plundered - albeit not to the same degree as in other countries - the resources of their employer when times were good. A great big pyramid scheme and we thought we were better and smarter than Albania post-Communism!
middleofpark (36 Posts)	Posted: 17-Oct-2008 12:44	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
middleofpark (36 Posts)	im interested in this whole buying and selling shares, a lot of them seem to be drop ping like mad recently but i have never done it. to be honest im not really sure how it works, do the banks charge up to 100 euro per transaction or what? can you buy and sell online for free, if so what sites?
handyscore (2,974 Posts)	Posted: 17-Oct-2008 13:33	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
handyscore (2,974 Posts)	Originally posted by middleofpark: im interested in this whole buying and selling shares, a lot of them seem to be drop ping like mad recently but i have never done it. to be honest im not really sure how it works, do the banks charge up to 100 euro per transaction or what? can you buy and sell online for free, if so what sites? Davy and goodbody stock brokers are the Irish onlne trading companies. i think the minimum fee per transaction is 25 euro. There is no doubt there are bargains to be had but the market is very volatile and there is not telling what companies will still be in existence in 6 months time.
JoNinety (Power User)	Posted: 17-Oct-2008 14:11	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
JoNinety (Power User)	If you buy in around 9 months time, I reckon you`ll get a 1000% return in your investment in your shares over 8 years which works out at 35% per year before CGT.
Punter72007 (1,022 Posts)	Posted: 17-Oct-2008 14:31	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
Punter72007 (1,022 Posts)	Originally posted by fireball: Shares slip to 1.70..........are they worth a gamble yet? talk of a merger with aib on the cards, dont know a whole lot about all this so any advise lads or ladies? Stay Clear ... it`s not about whether a company is making a profit anymore (which BOI clearly is ) ... it`s about cashflow and liquidity of your cash. Who knows how deep the rabbit hole goes? As recommended elsewhere ... pack animals, sheep and goats look like solid investments in this market.
Deise Vu (1,658 Posts)	Posted: 17-Oct-2008 16:00	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
Deise Vu (1,658 Posts)	Originally posted by Punter72007: Stay Clear ... it`s not about whether a company is making a profit anymore (which BOI clearly is ) ... it`s about cashflow and liquidity of your cash. Who knows how deep the rabbit hole goes? As recommended elsewhere ... pack animals, sheep and goats look like solid investments in this market. Having invented the new paradigm, sheep & goats I have another fool-proof scheme for AFR readers. Particularly those who have no house or other security. Go into a Bank of Ireland and ask to see the manager. Tell him you want to borrow €100k. Tell him you want to invest in BOI shares and you will leave the share certs with the branch as security. BOI is either insolvent or making the guts of €2BN a year. If it turns out to be insolvent tell the liquidator to keep the share certs, you have no money. If it is genuinely making the dosh its auditors have certified only a few months ago you will make €1.5M to €2M within a couple of years. Easy peasy. You might report back to the rest of us how the manager reacted. If he gulps revert to plan A, the sheep & goats.
Adam Smith (69 Posts)	Posted: 17-Oct-2008 16:23	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
Adam Smith (69 Posts)	The market capitalisation of BOI is about 1.8 billion. In the year end to 31st March 2008 BOI reported a profit of just over 1.7 billion. At that rate a fully leveraged buy-out would be paid back in a little over 12 months. It would be like getting the bank for free! Clearly there is something amiss with BOI`s operation.
Loughgraney Kid (506 Posts)	Posted: 17-Oct-2008 16:49	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
Loughgraney Kid (506 Posts)	Originally posted by Deise Vu: Having invented the new paradigm, sheep & goats I have another fool-proof scheme for AFR readers. Particularly those who have no house or other security. Go into a Bank of Ireland and ask to see the manager. Tell him you want to borrow €100k. Tell him you want to invest in BOI shares and you will leave the share certs with the branch as security. BOI is either insolvent or making the guts of €2BN a year. If it turns out to be insolvent tell the liquidator to keep the share certs, you have no money. If it is genuinely making the dosh its auditors have certified only a few months ago you will make €1.5M to €2M within a couple of years. Easy peasy. You might report back to the rest of us how the manager reacted. If he gulps revert to plan A, the sheep & goats. Irish Life & Permanent shares trading today at €3.55, BOI at €1.85, AIB at €2.99 and Anglo at €2.09. I thought that Irish Life and Permanent was the most exposed to the irish property market how come their shares are trading alot higher that the other irish banks.
mexican (591 Posts)	Posted: 17-Oct-2008 16:57	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
mexican (591 Posts)	Originally posted by Loughgraney Kid: Irish Life & Permanent shares trading today at €3.55, BOI at €1.85, AIB at €2.99 and Anglo at €2.09. I thought that Irish Life and Permanent was the most exposed to the irish property market how come their shares are trading alot higher that the other irish banks. IL&P aren`t up to their necks in developer loans (unlike AIB ) , most of their books (I think 80% ) are residential mortgages.
Deise Vu (1,658 Posts)	Posted: 17-Oct-2008 16:58	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
Deise Vu (1,658 Posts)	Originally posted by Loughgraney Kid: Irish Life & Permanent shares trading today at €3.55, BOI at €1.85, AIB at €2.99 and Anglo at €2.09. I thought that Irish Life and Permanent was the most exposed to the irish property market how come their shares are trading alot higher that the other irish banks. PTSB aren`t as exposed to commercial and speculative property loans. They basically stuck with boring old house mortgages and so aren`t expected to have the same bad debt exposure. They are supposedly more exposed than the others in relation to lack of deposits. Therefore the very expensive interbank rates will hit their bottom line harder than bad debts. However, you would think that the govt guarantee and ECB rate cuts should have taken care of that. BTW the actual cost of a share is not as relevant as the P/E ratio and dividend yield i.e. what dividend / earnings would €10K buy you in each share. PTSB does have the highest P/E ration at the moment, a rather pathetic 2.5 or thereabouts. This message has been edited - 17-oct-2008 @ 16:59
Punter72007 (1,022 Posts)	Posted: 17-Oct-2008 17:18	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
Punter72007 (1,022 Posts)	Just for the sake of argument ... not gonna do this but just want to get some clarity on it ... IF (and its a big if ) BOI were not exposed hugely to commercial lending or that commercial lending proved to be recoverable over a number of years (say 5-10 years as the property market recovered ) and also IF they were are taken over ... ... what price COULD the BOI shares be worth in 5 years time?
Deise Vu (1,658 Posts)	Posted: 17-Oct-2008 17:26	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
Deise Vu (1,658 Posts)	Originally posted by Punter72007: Just for the sake of argument ... not gonna do this but just want to get some clarity on it ... IF (and its a big if ) BOI were not exposed hugely to commercial lending or that commercial lending proved to be recoverable over a number of years (say 5-10 years as the property market recovered ) and also IF they were are taken over ... ... what price COULD the BOI shares be worth in 5 years time? In a settled market ie no panic or `irrational exhuberance` á la dot com shares you would expect a well performing company to have a P/E ratio around 14-18 times. Today BOI is valued at 1.07 (!!!! ) its last declared profit. Therefore if all the panic turned out to be a false alarm you would expect the shares to increase in value by at least 15 times assuming BOI could maintain the profits they last declared.
Pog Mahone (9,387 Posts)	Posted: 17-Oct-2008 17:51	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
Pog Mahone (9,387 Posts)	Originally posted by middleofpark: im interested in this whole buying and selling shares, a lot of them seem to be drop ping like mad recently but i have never done it. to be honest im not really sure how it works, do the banks charge up to 100 euro per transaction or what? can you buy and sell online for free, if so what sites? Here`s something I posted on a previous similar question MOP, think its still accurate. Sharewatch (www.sharewatch.com ) charge €50 for ‘small’ transactions up to €15,000 without opening an online account. If you have an online account they charge 0.3% per trade (subject to a minimum ) . Their website is pure sh1te imho. Davy charge 0.75% per trade (again subject to minimum ) , + a yearly maintenance fee of €90+ If you buy Irish shares there is a 1% stamp duty charge, 0.5% for UK ones, no stamp duty when selling. National Irish Bank charge 0.75% per trade (again subject to minimum ) , with no yearly maintenance fee, and you can trade European shares as well (no stamp duty on European shares ) . If you want to be slightly more adventurous, you could open a US account. Zecco (www.zecco.com ) have no charges (first 5 transactions per month, the rest at $5 per trade ) and there are no Stamp Duty charges either, so your profits (or loss ) are all yours. Ameritrade (www.tdameritrade.com ) charge $9.99 per trade and have a good website. You can buy and sell the US version of the top Irish shares (AIB, CRH, BOI etc ) without incurring any stamp duty charges. Bit of an added risk obviously on the currency fluctuation. There are many UK & European brokers as well, but not sure if they will all take Irish investors. Hope this helps.
Outcast (664 Posts)	Posted: 17-Oct-2008 18:06	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
Outcast (664 Posts)	"In a settled market ie no panic or `irrational exhuberance` á la dot com shares you would expect a well performing company to have a P/E ratio around 14-18 times. Today BOI is valued at 1.07 (!!!! ) its last declared profit. Therefore if all the panic turned out to be a false alarm you would expect the shares to increase in value by at least 15 times assuming BOI could maintain the profits they last declared." 8-10 times earnings is a more common rating than 14-18 which tends to be applied to fast growing companies. Without wishing to insult, anyone wondering why a company at 5 is dearer than a company at €2 is not ready to buy shares. The number of shares has to be taken into account. The Price Earning (PE ) ratio is the key figure. The reason bank shares are rated so low at present is that the market expects low future earnings. So while the Bank of Ireland PE based on last year`s profit is 1.07, if they make a small profit next year, they could very quickly be on a very high PE. I would steer clear for now. There will be plenty more buying opportunities before this is all resolved. If I was buying at present for 3 year investment: Ryanair at €2 CRH at €14 FBD at €10 Paddy Power at €10 Glanbia at €3 This message has been edited - 17-oct-2008 @ 18:07
balbec73-75 (1,191 Posts)	Posted: 17-Oct-2008 20:03	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
balbec73-75 (1,191 Posts)	Originally posted by Adam Smith: The market capitalisation of BOI is about 1.8 billion. In the year end to 31st March 2008 BOI reported a profit of just over 1.7 billion. At that rate a fully leveraged buy-out would be paid back in a little over 12 months. It would be like getting the bank for free! Clearly there is something amiss with BOI`s operation. I read last week that they are rumoured to have a lot of bad loans on their books. More than last years profit anyway. They will be taken over.
Welger AP630 (2,507 Posts)	Posted: 17-Oct-2008 20:35	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
Welger AP630 (2,507 Posts)	I wonder if the tracker morgages are stressing them a bit.
honest but limited (101 Posts)	Posted: 19-Oct-2008 17:39	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
honest but limited (101 Posts)	Originally posted by Welger AP630: I wonder if the tracker morgages are stressing them a bit. I don`t know what a tracker mortgage is!
let it long (1,214 Posts)	Posted: 19-Oct-2008 17:59	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
let it long (1,214 Posts)	Originally posted by honest but limited: I don`t know what a tracker mortgage is! Whats this ad for? This message has been edited - 19-oct-2008 @ 18:00
Deise Vu (1,658 Posts)	Posted: 20-Oct-2008 11:18	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
Deise Vu (1,658 Posts)	Originally posted by Outcast: "In a settled market ie no panic or `irrational exhuberance` á la dot com shares you would expect a well performing company to have a P/E ratio around 14-18 times. Today BOI is valued at 1.07 (!!!! ) its last declared profit. Therefore if all the panic turned out to be a false alarm you would expect the shares to increase in value by at least 15 times assuming BOI could maintain the profits they last declared." 8-10 times earnings is a more common rating than 14-18 which tends to be applied to fast growing companies. Without wishing to insult, anyone wondering why a company at 5 is dearer than a company at €2 is not ready to buy shares. The number of shares has to be taken into account. The Price Earning (PE ) ratio is the key figure. The reason bank shares are rated so low at present is that the market expects low future earnings. So while the Bank of Ireland PE based on last year`s profit is 1.07, if they make a small profit next year, they could very quickly be on a very high PE. I would steer clear for now. There will be plenty more buying opportunities before this is all resolved. If I was buying at present for 3 year investment: Ryanair at €2 CRH at €14 FBD at €10 Paddy Power at €10 Glanbia at €3 Sorry Outcast, I have no problem with the latter half of your post but I couldn`t agree 8-10 times P/E is the normal market rate. That would inmply returns of 10-12.50% in a settled market. If that was the case we`d all be Warren Buffets. Dot Com companies rarely had any P/E because they usually were losing money. Even in the devastation that is todays Stock Market Food Companies such as Glanbia and Kerry are already at 12-13 Times P/E. You can argue these are defensive stocks but I would argue that cash is the defensive stock of choice for todays punter. Even Ryanair which is facing the double whammy of oil going up and down like the proverbial hoor`s knickers and a likely shrinking cutomer base due to the general recession is trading at a P/E of 8. This is despite grim profit warnings for that well known pessimist Michael O`Leary.
LimerickNomad (Power User)	Posted: 20-Oct-2008 12:33	Quote Edit Delete Report Post Post Reply
LimerickNomad (Power User)	Originally posted by let it long: Whats this ad for? The Financial Regulator?

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